As Russia increases attacks on Ukraine, safe and legal routes for refugees are needed more than ever

On the three-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and as Russia increases military action ahead of negotiations to potentially end the war, it is harder than ever for someone in Ukraine to seek refuge in the UK. While some Ukrainian people fled via the bespoke visa routes established by the UK government at the start of the war, others stayed behind hoping the situation would improve. Unfortunately, this has not happened.

Since then, the previous Conservative government, without consultation or warning, restricted sponsor eligibility under the Homes for Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme to only British or Irish citizens or persons settled in the UK, effectively preventing Ukrainians with status under the schemes from sponsoring their own family.

A recent concession to allow children stranded in Ukraine to join their parents already in the UK  has provided a lifeline, but is far from what is now required to safeguard the interests of Ukrainian families in what could be a pivotal few months for Ukraine and the continent of Europe more generally. 

The situation in Ukraine has become more dangerous, not less

Ukrainians continue to seek safety abroad because the situation for civilians has become more, not less, dangerous since 2023. Between 2023 and 2024, the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine increased by 30%, from 8,597 to 11,153.15 according to data from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). This rise in casualties coincided with increased frontline military action over the course of 2024, and an increasing rate at which Russian troops advanced into Ukraine, as revealed by analysis from international non-profit organisation ACLED.

Far from suggesting a period of ‘reconstruction and recovery’, ACLED predicted the use of even greater military action ahead of potential ceasefire negotiations in 2025, targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure, and dangers posed to currently unoccupied Ukrainian oblasts (e.g. Kharkiv and Sumy). This prediction is already becoming a reality -  on 23 February, Russia launched its largest drone attack yet, attacking Ukraine with more than 200 drones overnight, as reported by Reuters.

For people with disabilities, the elderly and infirm, and orphaned children living in occupied territories or near to the frontline, the situation is particularly perilous. 

“My brother Bohdan is 14 years old; he's an orphan. He is cared for by my nan who is 78. They are living in a village in Kyiv Oblast, not far from the military town called Desna (15 min away by car) where there was a rocket strike. (...) He needs an education, as with regular electricity outages and warning sirens he has no opportunity to study and have a social life.” - Yuliia, 37, Living in the UK on the Homes for Ukraine Scheme 

“I am in a safe place in the UK, but my heart breaks and I am always crying because I cannot bring my mother and brother to a safe place. They are under constant fire and not far from the frontline. I am scared to lose them and never see them again.” - Maryna, 40, Living in the UK on the Homes for Ukraine Scheme

“I have continuous fear for my parents who are in occupied territories - I cannot sort my life [in the UK] as a result, as I'm always worried if they will be cut off from me. I can’t help them in any way." - Tetiana, 34, Living in the UK on the Ukraine Family Scheme

Read more testimonies from people whose families are still separated between the UK and Ukraine in our latest research report.

Policy reversals and uncertainty 

Following ongoing pressure from charities, the media, and a legal case brought by the Work Rights Centre, the Home Office conceded to allowing Ukrainian parents with status under the Ukraine visa schemes to sponsor minor children under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme. This is undoubtedly life-changing for those children and parents who can finally be together in safety, but it does nothing for others still at risk.

Many family members remain stranded in Ukraine excluded from this visa route. Disabled people, vulnerable and elderly parents, orphaned children must continue to find a person with permanent residency in the UK to sponsor them under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme. This is an incredibly challenging task for someone in Ukraine who may face a language barrier and lack social connections to people in the UK. Our previous report and media coverage since has also acknowledged the risk of fraud, with some Ukrainians having been tricked into handing over hundreds of pounds for sponsorship arrangements that turned out to be fake. 

Our recent survey of Ukrainians found that only 11% of those who had been actively seeking sanctuary for their family members in the UK since February 2024 had managed to find a sponsor to facilitate this. 69% of individuals who still needed a sponsor for themselves or an adult family member were “very unconfident” in securing one, with a further 25% reporting being “unconfident”. Similarly, although the Home Office concession is vital, the vast majority (84%) of survey respondents still require a sponsor for their adult relatives.

As a potential deal to end the conflict looks to be inching closer, another real issue is that of long-term settlement. The previous government’s changes halved the time that new applicants to the Homes for Ukraine Scheme would have to stay in the UK, from 36 months to 18 months. Our recent research report recommended reversing this change to enable new arrivals to better integrate, as had been the case for the original design of the scheme.

A more pressing issue will now be whether the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have fled to the UK over the last three years will be given the opportunity to permanently resettle here. The government’s response to a recent petition indicates that this will not be the case, owing to the wishes of the Ukrainian government for its citizens to help rebuild Ukraine when it is “safe to do so”. 

There will undoubtedly be sections of the Ukrainian community in the UK willing and able to answer this call. But, for others who have seen the home and life that they once knew dramatically reshaped by the conflict, this may all prove too great of a demand. For this reason, the UK must be ready to offer a route to permanent settlement for the thousands who now live, work and ultimately call the UK home.

A simple solution to a dire situation

The UK government has publicly declared its commitment to the Ukrainian people. As negotiations for an end to the war progress, and we see greater military action ahead of a potential ceasefire, the need for refuge will likely become even greater. 

Families belong together, even more so during times of uncertainty and war. Ministers must do everything in their power not to add to the suffering of refugees who have already lost so much. They must act now to allow all Ukrainians in the UK to sponsor family members still in Ukraine - whether they are elderly parents, disabled relatives, or orphaned children - to come to the UK for safety, together. Long-term settlement in the UK must also be offered to the many Ukrainians who have created new lives in this country - their safe haven cannot at any costs be pulled out from under their feet.