New changes to Ukraine Schemes offer 18-month extension, but prematurely close routes to safety

On 26 November 2024, the UK government published a new statement of changes to the Immigration Rules. For the Ukrainian community, this is a bittersweet development. While the introduction of a new Ukraine Permission Extension Scheme from 2025 will provide some comfort to Ukrainians whose leave is set to expire, the fact that this extension requires a separate application is likely to leave many behind.

The minister’s decision to retain the previous government’s position to close down two of the three Ukraine Schemes and heavily restrict eligibility under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme is also a problematic narrowing of Ukrainians’ routes to safety, at a time when the conflict shows no sign of abating. In this post we reflect on these changes, the vulnerabilities they create, and how the government can mitigate them.

Three key changes from 26 November 2024

Among the numerous announcements included in the published statement of changes and explanatory memorandum, three key measures stand out for the Ukrainian community:

• A new Ukraine Permission Extension Scheme is set to open on 04 February 2025. This will enable Ukrainian nationals and their eligible family members with status under the Ukraine Schemes (or who had status under the Ukraine Schemes and have since obtained a different one) to apply for an additional 18 months’ permission to stay in the UK, retaining the right to work, study, and claim public funds. However, it will not lead to settlement.
• The government confirmed that none of the time spent under the Ukraine Scheme will count towards the 10-year route to settlement; and
• The door remains mostly shut to new applications from Ukraine. The new Labour government has maintained the Conservative policy decision from February 2024 which closed the Ukraine Family Scheme, closed the Ukraine Extension Scheme to all but children born to Ukrainians in the UK, and heavily restricted access to the Homes for Ukraine Scheme by limiting sponsor eligibility to only British / Irish citizens and persons settled in the UK.

Other measures set out in these changes include limiting Ukrainians’ ability to travel with a permission to travel letter and closing the Ukraine Extension Scheme entirely - children of Ukrainians born in the UK will be able to apply under the Ukraine Permission Extension Scheme.

The risks

In many ways, the changes from November are not surprising. The exclusion of the Ukraine schemes from the 10-year route to settlement reaffirms the UK government’s initial strategy to provide, in line with the EU, a temporary-protection response to what has widely been recognised as the largest humanitarian crisis in Europe since WWII - this is a position many charities critiqued at the time. The other changes related to the Ukraine schemes were also communicated in February under the Conservative government, making this statement a moment of policy entrenchment, rather than carving new positions. Unfortunately, this level of predictability does not mitigate the risks for Ukrainians.

The first major risk comes from the requirement for Ukrainains to make a separate application to the Permission Extension Scheme. By the government’s own estimates, published in the Impact Assessment (p 29), as many as 270,000 people with status under the Ukraine Schemes would be eligible to apply - or between 145,000 to 200,000 after accounting for those who may have left the UK.

Research with other migrant cohorts, most notably EU citizens, shows that there will almost certainly be people who will fail to apply on time to extend their permission to stay in the UK - due to health issues, IT literacy, language barriers, and other personal reasons. Indeed, the UK government continues to consider EUSS applications years after the deadline of 30 June 2021. By contrast, the Permission Extension Ukraine Scheme allows for just a 90-day concession for late applications for a limited period of time between 4 February 2025 and 4 August 2025. Ukrainians whose leave has expired and who fail to apply within this window will become visa overstayers, losing the right to work, study, access healthcare or claim public funds. This poses serious risks of destitution and exploitation. It also raises questions about whether this approach to implementation meets the government’s aim.

According to the published impact assessment: “The UPE aims to fulfil the UK government’s commitments to the Ukrainian government to provide temporary sanctuary in the UK for Ukrainian nationals until it is safe to return”. Currently, taken to its logical conclusion, the requirement to apply for the Permission Extension Scheme would suggest that people who fail to do so become subject to removal. Surely, those cannot be the intended consequences of this policy. The more likely scenario is that people who miss the deadline would require a separate route to regularisation, which would only increase risk of precarity for Ukrainians, and add pressure on immigration advisers and the Home Office itself.

The requirement to make a separate application to this scheme also appears unnecessary, given the very recent precedent where the government has used its powers to grant automatic extensions. Currently, EU citizens and their family members with pre-settled status receive an automatic five-year extension to their status, shortly before it is set to expire. It is unclear why Ukrainians would be required to submit a separate application - especially given that, compared to EU citizens, this is a less-resourced community, with few Ukrainian-speaking licensed immigration advisers, and no dedicated government funding for immigration advice.

A premature narrowing of options

Aside from the risks derived from the implementation of the Ukraine Permission Extension scheme, the 26 November changes foretell a premature closing of safe and legal routes for Ukrainians who need to find, and retain, safety in the UK - at a time when the conflict in Ukraine is more intense than ever.

The decision to limit extensions to just 18 months and exclude the Ukraine Schemes from the 10-year route to settlement will likely make it harder for Ukrainians to find jobs in the UK, and will no doubt come as a disappointment to Ukrainians who have made the UK their home. According to the Humanitarian Response Insight Follow-up survey, before the UPE was announced just 10% of surveyed Ukrainians intended to leave the UK to Ukraine or elsewhere. Once it was announced, just 1% of respondents reported not intending to apply for the UPE - and of the 1%, most planned to switch to another visa in the UK.

Another worrying development is the decision to retain the previous government’s position to restrict routes for Ukrainians to find safety in the UK - by closing the Ukraine Family Scheme and Ukraine Extension Scheme, and restricting sponsor eligibility under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme to only people who have British or Irish citizenship, or who are settled in the UK. This is particularly surprising given that, shortly before the general election where Labour won a landslide victory, the then Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper castigated the immigration minister in the Commons for undermining the message of solidarity in the face of Russian aggression.

Our previous research has shown that this decision has left families separated, with Ukrainians in the UK worried for their safety, and those in the UK feeling powerless to support them. With recent news reports suggesting that Russia is advancing at the fastest pace since the start of the invasion in 2022, these changes are only likely to increase the risks for Ukrainians. There is a real danger that, squeezed between the conflict in Ukraine and the restrictive routes to the UK, many enter through irregular routes, or become overstayers.

The minority who can access the appropriate advice are likely to make more complex applications for asylum or humanitarian protection, which only increase the workload for the Home Office, and prologue insecurity for individuals. Indeed, the number of asylum applications by Ukrainian nationals increased substantially, from 157 in 2023, to 446 in 2024 (Q4 data is still outstanding). Almost all decisions were positive (96.3%).

To avoid the risks, we make three recommendations

• The government should exercise its powers to automatically extend the leave of people with permission under the Ukraine Schemes, to prevent the risk of them falling into irregular status.
• The minority of people for whom automatic extension is not possible should not be penalised for late applications. A strict 90-day deadline for late applications only increases the risk for those who are unable to apply, without any strategic benefit.
• The February 2024 changes to the Homes for Ukraine Scheme should be reversed, recognising the fact that the conflict continues and the need for safety remains acute. At a minimum, the government should ensure that Ukrainians who arrived in the UK after the war are able to sponsor minor children and elderly relatives whose lives are at risk.

These measures are urgently needed to respond to the continued humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, and the risks of increasing precarity for Ukrainians and their family members who are already in the UK.